Shurmur's Replacements

Before we get going, wasn't it refreshing to see the owner of the Cleveland Browns during a telecast of the football game?

Seeing him was enough (especially since we never saw Randy Lerner). But seeing him give genuine emotion during the game? Times, they are a changing, my friends.

Jimmy Haslam III's body language during Sunday's game in Indianapolis told Joe Cleveland a lot about what he thinks about the coach he inherited, Pat Shurmur.

It now leads me to believe that the question is no longer "if" Shurmur will be fired at the end of the season, it now becomes "when."

As in, will Haslam fire Shurmur next week? At the bye week? With two weeks to go in the regular season? In the locker room following the season finale?

Mike Holmgren is on his way out the door. Shurmur's fresh out of friends. Sure, new CEO Joe Banner knew Shurmur when the latter was an assistant coach on Andy Reid's staff in Philadelphia, but that may not be the best thing for Shurmur.

Shurmur's only won five games in a year-and-a-half. Shurmur has an 11-game losing streak to his credit. Shurmur has made countless coaching blunders during games that have cost his teams a chance to win.

I'll let this one sink in for you ... Shurmur was outcoached yesterday by an interim coach. Bruce Arians (remember him as the offensive coordinator who perpetuated the Tim Couch-Kelly Holcomb controversy back in the early 2000s) outcoached Pat Shurmur.

Joe Cleveland woke up Monday fully expecting to see a banner headline on Cleveland.com saying that Shurmur was fired. It would not have surprised me.

Sure, Shurmur could still save his job. But this team is 1-6 and lost to a very beatable Colts team. Coaching decisions, such as the decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Indy 40 with six minutes left (then going for it from the same yard line but fourth-and-six), kicking the extra point instead of going for the potential game-tying 2-point conversion after Josh Gordon's touchdown to start the third quarter, and essentially abandoning the run game against a very weak run defense in a game that within one possession the majority of the game will come back to haunt him.

Shurmur would have to win at least five more games over the remaining nine to even be in the discussion to come back. I believe that he would have to sweep the Steelers as well. Can it be done? There are some winnable games on the schedule -- the Chiefs, the Redskins, the Raiders, the Steelers (both), the Ravens and the Chargers are all winnable games. That's seven of the remaining nine games, so it's not as if they're having to play the Patriots, Packers, Falcons, Texans and 49ers.

The only two games on the schedule that look like definite losses are the Cowboys and the Broncos on the road. Even the Cowboys look beatable.

Will it be done? Even with a roster of up-and-coming talent that has been competitive each and every week, I don't think it will.

So, let's get the ball rolling and see who could be on the short list of guys to replace Shurmur. Mike Holmgren essentially took himself out of the equation by retiring at the end of this season, and I can't see existing assistants with head coaching experience such as Brad Childress and Dick Jauron being legitimate candidates.

Haslam and Banner will want a proven head coach that can turn this collection of talent into a perennial winner, or at lease someone with a winning background. Here's who could be on that list:

1. Jon Gruden, ESPN Monday Night Football analyst: Gruden, a Sandusky native who grew up as a Browns fan, was everyone's No. 1 choice two years ago when Holmgren fired Eric Mangini. Gruden was from the Holmgren coaching tree and the two remained close through the years. Gruden turned a struggling Raiders franchise into a winner then left after a falling out with owner Al Davis. He landed in Tampa Bay and won a Super Bowl (over the Raiders) in his first season there, giving the perennial losing Bucs their first Super Bowl berth and title. He kept the Bucs a perennnial winner, but was fired in 2008 after his team missed the playoffs. For whatever reason (ego?), Holmgren decided to go the unproven route (a decision that greased his skids out of town). But the time may be right for Gruden to get back into coaching. He's also high on current rookie QB Brandon Weeden, and he may look forward to working with him. Gruden has ring, the local pedigree and the big name to get people talking.

2. Bill Cowher, CBS NFL analyst: Cowher is always on Browns fans' radars whenever they make a coaching change. He'll always be the one that got away in a lot of fans' eyes when the Dead Judas passed on the former Browns linebacker and defensive assistant for Bill Belichick back in 1991. The next year, Cowher was hired to replace Chuck Noll at Pittsburgh, and he immediately turned around a franchise that was stagnant under Noll back into a contender. Cowher was always a thorn in the Browns' side, but, like his mentor Marty Schottenheimer, his Steeler teams were prone to a big playoff choke every single year. He finally got that monkey off his back in his second-to-last year when the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005. Since he stepped down, he's been a fixture on CBS's Sunday game-day telecasts. At least once, Cowher turned down Randy Lerner to be the Browns head coach and he has not given any indication that he would be interested in returning. Also, Haslam's Steeler ties occurred AFTER Cowher left, so they do not have a prior relationship. Do I think Cowher would come to Cleveland? Probably not. But, as long as there is a coaching vacancy, you have to include him on any short list.

3. Nick Saban, Alabama head coach: Saban's name has suddenly become hot rumored commodity, especially after Saban's interview for the NFL Network documentary "Cleveland 95: A Football Life," in which he waxes poetically about his time as the Browns defensive coordinator under Belichick and how close that team was to becoming a winner. Saban left the Browns to become Michigan State's head coach, and he has been very successful there, at Louisiana State (a national championship in 2006) and at Alabama (two national championships in 2008 and 2011 and potentially a third this year). In between LSU and Alabama, there was a forgettable two-year stint as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins from 2005-06, in which his teams went 15-17. Saban's track record shows a guy who doesn't like to get settled down in one place too long, and he may feel the time is right for a return to the pro game. With his former Tide star Trent Richardson as the cornerstone of the Browns' offense, and with Haslam's deep checkbook, Saban could come here. But, let's take a moment and remember the last college coach that came here, Butch Davis, and how well that four-year stint went. Just because a guy was successful in college doesn't mean that will translate to the pros.

4. Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles head coach: Reid's hot seat in Philly keeps getting hotter the more his team loses games. His firing of defensive coordinator Juan Castillo at the bye week reeked of a desperation move. He came very close to losing his job last year after going 8-8 despite a ton of high profile free agent signings that bolstered both defense and the offense. He's only been to one Super Bowl in his 10 years in Philly, so it may be title or bust for him. Banner worked closely with Reid at the Eagles, although their relationship was strained at best (according to some reports). Reid also worked with current Browns GM Tom Heckert, although Reid had final say on the roster. Reid may keep a lot of the assistant coaches because of his familiarity with them and may keep up some of continuity. Reid's a proven winner (129-83-1), but he's never won a championship.

5. Brian Billick, FOX NFL/college game analyst: If Cowher's the one that got away for the old Browns, Billick is the one that got away for the expansion era. Billick quickly emerged as Carmen Policy's No. 1 candidate to be the head coach of the new Browns. After his Vikings were upset in the NFC Championship game by the Atlanta Falcons, then-GM Dwight Clark was whisked to Minneapolis on Al Lerner's private jet with a contract for Billick to sign. However, Billick wanted to meet with the Ravens first and talk about their opening. An insulted Policy yanked the offer away from Billick and watched him agree to become the Ravens coach. He quickly turned Baltimore's fortunes around, winning the Super Bowl in just his second year and turning the franchise into a perennial winner. The Browns may have cost him his job in 2007, when they memorably swept his Ravens and knocked them into a losing season. Since then, he has not been a serious candidate for any head coaching openings. Who knows if he has the itch, but his familiarity with the AFC North Division (especially the Ravens) would make him a legitimate candidate if he decided to test the waters. Plus, he has a ring and his name is recognizable. Oh, and did I mention he was an Ohio native (Fairborn)?

6. Jim Tressel, University of Akron vice president: Tressel is like a modern-day Paul Brown when it comes to Ohio football coaches. Tressel, after turning Youngstown State into a perennnial Division I-AA (FCS) powerhouse, winning four national championships in the 80s and 90s, came to Ohio State and immediatly won the school's first national championship since 1968 (well, in his second year, but it was pretty close to immediate). He coached the Buckeyes to two other national championship games and always had his program on the verge of national contention. His teams owned the Michigan rivalry, only losing once from 2001-10. However, he was forced out following a scandal involving several of his players selling their memorablilia (such as trophies) for tattoos. Last season, he served as a consultant for the Indianapolis Colts and was interviewed for their head coaching job (which wound up going to Chuck Pagano). The NCAA has barred him from accepting another college head coaching job for the next five years. He stated many times that the one NFL job he would even consider leaving Ohio State for was the Browns job, because he grew up in Berea and was still a die-hard Browns fan. He was even linked to the job twice during Romeo Crennel's up-and-down four-year tenure, but was never a serious candidate. While his style may be best suited for college players, there's no denying that he's a winner. Plus, he'd be a very popular choice with the fans -- many still think he got a raw deal even though it was proven that he lied to NCAA investigators.

7. Tony Dungy, NBC Sunday Night Football analyst: Dungy, like Cowher, Gruden and Billick, has found a home on television following his retirement from being the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts following the 2008 season. Since then, Dungy has been a fixture on NBC's Football Night in America highlight show and on the SNF postgame studio show. Dungy was in the process of turning Tampa Bay's football fortunes around from 1996-2001 before he was mysteriously fired (and replaced by Jon Gruden, who promptly won a Super Bowl with his players). Indy snapped him up to replace Jim Mora, and, with the help of Peyton Manning, rode a wave of prosperity with the Colts from 2002-08, even winning the Super Bowl in 2006 and building a team that got to the Super Bowl a year after he stepped down. Dungy, a former Steeler player and assistant coach, is one of the most respected figures in professional football today and would bring instant credibility to this franchise. However, it appears he's comfortable as a TV analyst and hasn't leaked any indication of a possible return to coaching. He'd be worth talking to, though.

8. Kevin Gilbride, New York Giants offensive coordinator: As the architect of the Giants' offense, Gilbride has won two Super Bowl championships over the last five years and has the chance to win a third this season. Gilbride is one of the most respected offensive minds in the NFL, dating back to his Run-&-Shoot offensive scheme with the Houston Oilers in the early 1990s. However, as a head coach, he didn't cut the mustard, going 6-16 during his two years as the head coach of the San Diego Chargers (1996-98). Gilbride may be one of those guys who is just cut out to be a top-level assistant but not ready to be a head coach. However, the work he's done with the Giants lately has seemingly put him back on the radar for head coaching gigs. He's arguably the top candidate among current assistant coaches. If the Giants reach the Super Bowl again, his name will definitely be a hot commodity.

9. Philip Fulmer, CBS college football analyst: I throw Fulmer's name on this list because he's a coaching legend from the University of Tennessee. Haslam's father was a football player for the Volunteers, and the Haslam family is one of Tennessee's biggest athletic boosters and a very influential family down there. Fulmer won Tennessee's only BCS National Championship in 1997, and his Volunteers are still the last SEC team to win back-to-back conference championships (1997-98). Fulmer hasn't coached anyone since Tennessee fired him after a 5-7 season in 2008, but he has said that he hasn't ruled out a return to coaching. I refer to my earlier statement on college coaches making the transition to the NFL, and, if any college coach makes the jump, it's likely to be Saban. Also, Fulmer has never even been an NFL assistant coach. But, anything's possible.

10. Dom Capers, Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator: Capers has had a sketchy track record as an NFL head coach. In two four-year stints with the Carolina Panthers (1995-98) and the Houston Texans (2002-05), his record is just 48-80. However, he did take over two expansion franchises, and his Panthers reached the NFC Championship game in just his second year. However, that 1996 season was his only winning season as a head coach. His defenses were always tough, but his offenses were conservative and lackluster. Capers is an Ohio native (Byesville) who played collegiately at Mount Union and also served as an assistant coach with both Kent State (1972-74) and Ohio State (1982-83), so he has some Ohio ties. He was also the Steelers' defensive coordinator from 1992-94 under Cowher. His Packers' units are known to be among the top defenses in the NFL. However, he did win a Super Bowl with the Packers in 2010 and could very well do it again this year. His background in the 3-4 defense clashes with the Browns' current desire to go with a 4-3.

HONORABLE MENTION: Urban Meyer, Ohio State head coach; Aaron Kromer, New Orleans Saints interim head coach; Todd Haley, Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator; Herman Edwards, NFL Network analyst; Kirk Ferentz, Iowa head coach; Jay Gruden, Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator; Wade Phillips, Houston Texans defensive coordinator; Joe Vitt, New Orleans Saints assistant head coach; Rob Ryan, Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator.

There is no shortage of legitimate candidates to be the next Browns head coach, one that would surely get the fans excited and help put this team over the hump.

And, I've got to say, I would prefer anyone on this list over Pat Shurmur.

Until next time, remember that Cleveland Rocks!

Bye-Bye, Mangini!

Joe Cleveland wasn't surprised to see Eric Mangini get canned as the Cleveland Browns head coach this morning (in fact, I turned on my cell phone to see at least five people texted me that Mangini was toast early this morning).

I was a little surprised, however, that Mangini actually finished the season.

The writing was on the wall when the Browns fell to the lowly Buffalo Bills in a lackluster effort, and it was pretty loud and clear when they duplicated that same effort the following week against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. At that point, it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that Mangini had to win both of his remaining games if he expected to come back for a third season as Browns coach.

That didn't happen.

From my seat in Cleveland Browns Stadium on Sunday, after the hated Steelers had just gone up by two touchdowns with less than half of the first quarter gone, I wondered aloud if Mike Holmgren himself would descend from his luxury box down to the sideline, Haskell in tow, tap Mangini and Brian Daboll on their respective shoulders, tell them to get lost, grab their headsets and coach the rest of the game. Most of people in my section thought that would have been the greatest thing ever. Unfortunately, it didn't happen.

However, Holmgren waited until Mangini walked into his regular meeting with him this morning and basically told him the exact same thing.

For the time being, though, it appears Holmgren isn't interested in coaching himself. I wonder if that's part of the "due dillegence" he has to do to placate the NFL in the search. He has to interview at least one minority candidate (thanks, Dan Rooney), although, I think that rule doesn't help minority candidates at all. Most of them wind up taking token interviews even though the team has already decided on the candidate they want. The fact is, the best man usually gets the job, and I think the color of a man's skin has little to do with it anymore (college football, on the other hand ...)

If, after two weeks of interviewing candidates, Holmgren decides that the best candidate is himself, so be it. I think the Browns could do a lot worse than a guy who has 3 Super Bowls under his belt. One loss was to John Elway, who simply wanted it to much. The other loss was one of most controvercial Super Bowls in history, thanks to a litany of questionable officials non-calls and penalties.

If Holmgren is comfortable in his role as the president, here's a few names to keep an eye on:

Jon Gruden: Gruden has a history with Holmgren in both San Francisco and Green Bay. They share the same offensive vision and they share the same agent. Gruden also grew up in Ohio as a Browns fan and would relish the chance to coach the team back to prominance. Gruden also personally reccommended Colt McCoy to Holmgren, and it was Holmgren who lobbied his GM, Tom Heckert, to draft him. It depends on if Gruden is ready to return to coaching this year or not, but I'd have to say he's the No. 1 candidate.

Marty Mohrningweg: I don't know if this is how you spell his name, but many NFL experts are saying Marty is the favorite. Mohrningweg does have head coaching experience, however it came with the Detroit Lions under Matt Millen. Mohrningweg's teams went 5-27 while he was there, and included a curious decision to kickoff to start an overtime that wound up biting his team in the ass. Mohrningweg has made a name for himself as an offensive coordinator, especially lately with the Philadelphia Eagles. Mohrningweg has said that he learned a lot of lessons from his first coaching stint, and Holmgren and Heckert should be a bit more competant at running a team than Millen was. Mohrningweg shares the same offensive philosophies (and agent) as Holmgren, and it appears he's one of the coaches Holmgren has already asked permission to interview.

John Fox: Fox's name started coming up in conversation as soon as his Carolina Panthers began to take a turn for the worse. Fox has never coached in the Holmgren tree, but they both share the same agent and have similar philosophies and a mutual respect and admiration for each other. Fox is more of a defensive coach, but he took the Panthers to their only Super Bowl and coaxed some great seasons out of Jake Delhomme, who is currently a backup QB for the Browns. Its obvious that the Panthers needed to make a change, but Fox's reputation is that he's a solid coach who gets the most out of his players.

Perry Fewell: At first, I thought Fewell was just going to be interviewed to placate the Rooney Rule. However, Fewell did do fairly decent as Buffalo's interim head coach two seasons ago and made a seemless transition to become the Giants' defensive coordinator. I think he's a darkhorse candidate at best, because I think Holmgren wants an offensive-minded coach. However, if his contract is up, I could see him coming in as the defensive boss here.

Jim Harbaugh: I don't agree with Harbaugh as a candidate, because I don't think coaches can make the transition from college to the NFL. Even though Harbaugh ran a pro-style system at Stanford, and he spent many years as an NFL quarterback and his brother has been successful as the Baltimore Ravens coach, I would rather some other team take the flier on Harbaugh. As long as Michigan doesn't get him (speaking as a Buckeye fan), I'll be happy. That being said, I couldn't see Harbaugh coaching in the same division as his brother anyway.

Brian Billick: One prominant radio guy has been saying Billick should be a front-runner for this job. Billick did coach a West Coast offense at Minnesota under Denny Green, who was on the same coaching staff as Holmgren in San Francisco, so there is a connection there. Billick can be abrasive, but he did coach Baltimore to their only championship since they left Cleveland (and only Super Bowl). He knows the North Division inside and out. And, he was ready to come here to coach the Browns before Policy overstepped his bounds and tried to wave a "take it or leave it" offer at him just hours after his Vikings were upset in the NFC championship game in 1998. He's been out of coaching since Baltimore fired him three years ago, so it will be interesting to see if he leaves his TV job. I can't see him as a legitimate candidate.

Steve Mariucci: Mariucci coached with Holmgren in both Green Bay and San Francisco before taking over for George Seifert in San Francisco for a few years. Supposedly, Mariucci was ready to take the Browns job in 1999 if he was to be fired as 49ers coach (as had been rumored) before Terrell Owens made that terrific touchdown catch in the playoffs to eliminate Green Bay (and Holmgren) and save his job. Mariucci has enjoyed his cushy gig on the NFL Network, but you have to assume he might be on Holmgren's list of confidants.

Gil Haskell: Holmgren brought Haskell in as an advisor to both him and to Mangini's coaching staff. Haskell was Holmgren's long-time offensive coorindator in Seattle. Holmgren always wondered why Haskell was never given an opportunity to become a head coach, and there are some who think that this may be that opportunity. Haskell is also up there in age and I can't see him becoming the head coach. Offensive coordinator, yes. Head coach, not so much.

Josh McDaniels: His name popped up because he's from Canton and played at John Carroll and because he shares the same agent as Holmgren. If Mangini would have been retainined, I could have definitely seen McDaniels becoming the offensive coordinator next year. However, McDaniels does not share Holmgren's offensive vision. And, do we really need another Bill Belichick disciple coaching the Browns, especially since the last two worked out so well (sarcasm)? Assistant coach, yes. Head coach, no.

Karl Dorrall: The former UCLA coach's name popped up in Plain Dealer reports as a candidate. He was a fine assistant coach at Carolina and many feel that he's on fast track to becoming an NFL head coach. Unless Holmgren is trying to bring in an unknown that he can puppet-string around (Denver offensive coordinator Mike McCoy would be another one), I can't see Dorrall as a viable candidate at this point.

Rob Ryan: I put him on the list because he's currently under contract with the Browns and he's being linked to other head coaching openings. Supposedly, Holmgren liked Ryan a lot. I don't know if the guy his head coaching material, considering his defenses were usually inconsistant. He'd be entertaining as a head coach, to say the least, and I think it was fairly significant that the defense ran out as a group with Ryan leading the way. The players love him. That being said, he is a bit of a loose cannon whose words could come back to bite him. It will be interesting to see what happens with him -- I wouldn't be surprised if he was retained by Holmgren as DC if he didn't find a head coaching gig.

Do you have any candidates you believe should be kept an eye on? Any opinions on the coaching search? Feel free to comment on them below.

Until next time, remember that Cleveland Rocks!